To no surprise of anyone, it turns out being a solely offensive or defensive team isn’t really the best way to win games. It is important for a team to be balanced on both sides of the ball. Score a lot of goals, but be difficult to score on. Be a wall at the back, but score a few yourself. Seems obvious enough. After working on both my offensive and defensive scoring systems, I figured I would see what happens when the two statistics are combined into one lump total score. Always one for creative, I labeled this new score the Nelli Total Score. Based on my previous two experiments, it appeared as though a great offense had a better correlation to winning than a great defense (68% correlation to 51% correlation). However, being a balanced team with a good offense and defense statistically (and logically) appears to be significantly better than unbalanced in either direction. In fact, the Nelli Total Score has an 88% correlation with winning. So without further ado, here are the Nelli Total Scores for every Division I program this season.
Nelli Total Rank | Team | Nelli Offense Score | Nelli Defensive Score | Nelli Total Score |
1 | Loyola Maryland | 45.00 | 64.65 | 109.65 |
2 | Maryland | 42.00 | 65.31 | 107.32 |
3 | Denver | 46.55 | 60.63 | 107.17 |
4 | North Carolina | 45.01 | 61.15 | 106.15 |
5 | Albany (NY) | 46.85 | 58.19 | 105.05 |
6 | Duke | 44.98 | 59.72 | 104.70 |
7 | Bryant | 39.53 | 64.87 | 104.40 |
8 | Johns Hopkins | 42.06 | 61.94 | 104.00 |
9 | Fairfield | 43.52 | 59.24 | 102.77 |
10 | Lehigh | 38.51 | 64.18 | 102.69 |
11 | Cornell | 42.38 | 59.66 | 102.05 |
12 | Army | 39.60 | 61.92 | 101.52 |
13 | Saint Joseph’s | 39.90 | 61.62 | 101.51 |
14 | Air Force | 42.12 | 58.16 | 100.28 |
15 | Penn St. | 40.07 | 59.91 | 99.98 |
16 | Syracuse | 45.45 | 54.52 | 99.97 |
17 | Drexel | 40.78 | 58.94 | 99.72 |
18 | Virginia | 43.58 | 56.07 | 99.65 |
19 | Yale | 38.99 | 60.04 | 99.03 |
20 | Notre Dame | 42.02 | 56.64 | 98.65 |
21 | High Point | 37.13 | 61.49 | 98.62 |
22 | Harvard | 39.26 | 58.92 | 98.19 |
23 | Princeton | 42.26 | 55.89 | 98.15 |
24 | Penn | 36.69 | 61.30 | 97.98 |
25 | Hofstra | 40.09 | 57.87 | 97.95 |
26 | Rutgers | 41.58 | 56.27 | 97.85 |
27 | Delaware | 37.62 | 59.31 | 96.93 |
28 | UMBC | 43.03 | 53.88 | 96.90 |
29 | Siena | 38.31 | 58.58 | 96.89 |
30 | Quinnipiac | 37.88 | 57.92 | 95.80 |
31 | Massachusetts | 38.90 | 56.85 | 95.75 |
32 | St. John’s (NY) | 41.39 | 54.30 | 95.69 |
33 | Navy | 36.51 | 59.03 | 95.54 |
34 | Ohio St. | 37.20 | 58.24 | 95.44 |
35 | Bellarmine | 35.44 | 59.88 | 95.32 |
36 | Brown | 36.99 | 58.29 | 95.28 |
37 | Detroit | 33.78 | 61.43 | 95.21 |
38 | Colgate | 36.04 | 59.07 | 95.11 |
39 | Marist | 41.43 | 53.60 | 95.03 |
40 | Bucknell | 35.39 | 59.47 | 94.85 |
41 | Hartford | 37.35 | 57.38 | 94.73 |
42 | Canisius | 37.13 | 56.98 | 94.11 |
43 | Stony Brook | 43.39 | 50.48 | 93.87 |
44 | Binghamton | 39.35 | 54.47 | 93.82 |
45 | Mercer | 37.44 | 56.36 | 93.80 |
46 | Villanova | 36.09 | 57.49 | 93.59 |
47 | Sacred Heart | 36.71 | 55.68 | 92.38 |
48 | Vermont | 34.39 | 57.89 | 92.28 |
49 | Towson | 36.75 | 55.18 | 91.92 |
50 | Hobart | 36.08 | 55.69 | 91.77 |
51 | Georgetown | 36.15 | 55.14 | 91.29 |
52 | Richmond | 33.75 | 56.88 | 90.63 |
53 | Jacksonville | 35.59 | 54.96 | 90.55 |
54 | Robert Morris | 34.99 | 55.02 | 90.01 |
55 | Michigan | 36.91 | 52.88 | 89.79 |
56 | Providence | 33.59 | 56.06 | 89.64 |
57 | Marquette | 38.41 | 50.84 | 89.25 |
58 | Boston U. | 30.81 | 57.39 | 88.20 |
59 | Manhattan | 31.47 | 55.63 | 87.10 |
60 | Holy Cross | 35.99 | 50.34 | 86.33 |
61 | Dartmouth | 31.77 | 52.86 | 84.63 |
62 | Wagner | 29.67 | 54.38 | 84.06 |
63 | Monmouth | 28.19 | 55.13 | 83.32 |
64 | Lafayette | 29.74 | 52.80 | 82.54 |
65 | VMI | 28.49 | 53.30 | 81.79 |
66 | Mt. St. Mary’s | 27.79 | 53.86 | 81.65 |
67 | Furman | 31.44 | 50.03 | 81.46 |
And my linear regression: